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The phone of the future diciembre 6, 2006

Posted by Ale Salevsky in Future.
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Encontré un art muy piola en The Economist sobre el
futuro de los teléfonos /industria de las
telcos 
en los próximos 15 años. Hay mucha futurología y cs ficción pero
también hay cosas que me parecen claves. Y en el fondo, quien sabe cuanto es o
no cs ficción.
 
Más allá de algunas cosas muy voladas, me quedo con un
par de ideas.
 
-Entender las nuevas tendendias en esta industria
DESDE los fenomenos sociales emergentes y no desde las
tecnologías emergentes (ejemplo del desarrollo del móvil y
SMS)
-Entender que las nuevas generaciones (y no tan nuevas)
son multitask: poseen habilidad para hacer varias cosas a la
vez. Las interfases de los nuevos handsets (mobile +  fixed  =  hybrid) permitiran que puedan acceder a
distintos contenidos e interacciones con otras personas todo a la vez, lo que
multiplica el consumo.
-Entender  que
 
el futuro de la industria de las telecomunicaciones pasa por entender
las conesecuencias sociales de gente multitask y siempre conectada  y eso no es un futuro tan
lejano
.

Algunos quotes interesantes…

-(phones) may be hidden in
jewellery or accessories, or even embedded in the body. They will undoubtedly
have a host of additional features and novel uses, and users will probably
interact with them in new ways, too
 
One thing that is clear is that phones will pack a
lot more computing power in future, and will be able to do more and more of the
things that PCs are used for today—and more
besides
 
studies show that people read around ten megabytes
(MB) worth of material a day; hear 400MB a day, and see one MB of
information every second. In a decade’s time a typical phone will have enough
storage capacity to be able to video its user’s entire life, says Mr Lindoff.
Tom MacTavish, a researcher at Motorola Labs, predicts that such “life
recorders” will be used for everything from security to settling accident claims
with insurance firms.
 
Another trend is towards phones that double as
both fixed and mobile devices, using cellular networks when outdoors and
switching to fixed networks, accessed via a short-range radio link to a small
base-station, when indoors. Meanwhile, distance and voice-based pricing are
going away too, so that before long many subscribers will probably pay a fixed
monthly access fee for unlimited phone calls and data
transfers
 
In Japan, phones can already be used to make
purchases in shops: a wireless chip in the phone communicates with a special
reader at the till. The same “near field communication” chips enable phones to
be used as train tickets and office passes, so acting as front-door keys or car
keys as well would not be a giant leap.
 
-Cellphones:
The next step, […] will be a great
decoupling, as the screen, keypad and earpiece start to become separate
components, or are replaced by other completely new technologies. […] Some
users might choose to hook up separate screens and keyboards when needed, such
as when answering e-mail or browsing the web. Already, early examples of such
technologies exist.
 
Some firms are also developing displays built into
glasses, in order to do away with the screen altogether. This approach also
makes it possible to overlay information on the real world, which could be
useful when giving directions. Your phone might even label people at a party or
conference to remind you of the
 
-Today’s earpieces may give way to smaller devices
hidden in earrings or worn as minuscule patches on the skin near the ear. It
would then be possible to listen to your phone or music-player while still
hearing the ambient sounds of the environment
 
-Entering data into a phone might ultimately be done
not with fingers but with speech—or even directly by the brain.
 
Phone numbers may become as invisible to users as
the underlying internet-protocol addresses of websites are to people surfing the
web.
 
-Stuart Wolf, a physics professor at the University
of Virginia and a researcher for the American military, suggests that within 20
years people will use their thoughts to communicate not only with machines, but
also with each other—doing away with talking into phones entirely. Telephony
could give way to telepathy.
 
The ability to superimpose images and sound upon
reality means that future phones will “create layers on our world”, says Pierre
de Vries of the Annenberg Centre for Communication at the University of Southern
California. Users will always be connected, he says, but in concentric circles
of conversations and interactions that range from people right next to them to
those far away.

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